5 Comments

More great work. It would be nice to engage with the calendar, for example just see projections up to Dec 21 or change the efficacy value after Dec 21 for Omi, but it's not that hard to just run two plots and combine them.

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I like it, but wouldn't the pandemic have been over in Q2'2021?

I think so.

https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/Delta_Outbreak_Q3_2021.mp4

The ONS figures can not describe what happened in Q3'2021, because it seems to be pretty specific to the USA, unless you know another place where this happened.

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Mar 15, 2023·edited Mar 15, 2023

Nice work! I downloaded the data and added up the differences between the curves and get 516,774 lives presumably saved just in the 65-74 age group. While this is perhaps a bit more sensible than the "millions of lives saved" estimates based on SEIR-model extrapolations, it is still completely ludicrous given only ~385K people died of COVID in the US in 2020. The variants become less deadly over time while the population becomes less susceptible as there are fewer vulnerable to die plus natural and herd immunity increases. It appears much more likely the vaxxes themselves are causing excess deaths, regardless of whether they are classified as COVID or not.

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Is there a country on God's green earth for which age groups for Covid data (cases, hospitalizations, deaths), Covid vaccine data, and all-cause deaths align?

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Mar 16, 2023·edited Mar 16, 2023

Nice work 👍

Pretty much my experience as well. I couldn’t believe that nobody else could see it, only to find out much later on that lots of people did see it and were trying to get the message out, but were being silenced/censored by the MSM and scientific journals.

“When the COVID vaccines were 1st announced, I actually assumed they would be pretty effective against COVID. The numbers from the trials looked very compelling & I was not in a position to question them. By late summer of 2021, however, I just could not square what we were actually seeing in the real world with what folks were claiming in terms of the effectiveness of the vaccines.“

Jim Hamil did has a similar model where he looked at Hospitalization in Australia which pretty much shows the same effect.

https://rebekahbarnett.substack.com/p/west-australian-government-finally/comment/13593831

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