24 Comments
Mar 10, 2023·edited Mar 10, 2023Liked by T Coddington

If the ONS were trying to discredit their other report with this one, they could scarcely have done a better job. It's nice to see what the deaths data says without a lot of pointless adjustments, so thanks for that. However, I think there is a difference in the definition for "Covid death" in that the efficacy report merely requires mention of Covid-19 on death certificate while the deaths report requires primary cause. This may or may not influence results and the changes after March (i.e., maybe it would look even worse).

Using the deaths report (primary cause), unvaxxed seemingly aren't Covid-dying very much in 2022. At a certain point you would expect that the vaxxed should actually die more, simply because the control group is "all died out" while the vaxxed are still catching up with actually getting infected and either dying or gaining natural immunity. This is a known problem in long term vaccine efficacy appraisal https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7003633/

Maybe the ONS authors behind this new report wanted to "correct" for that problem. *edit: Actually, this problem might not have had any impact on their outputs had they used the months after March, 2022, anyway, because they are measuring time-to-event (HR), so a leveling off at the end shouldn't change anything - however, again, the results might be worse using the efficacy standard of "mentions" rather than "primary" cause of death. Really it just seems like a troll.

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Aghh.. comment window just ate my comment..

I just wanted to point out that starting January 2022 was actually the perfect time to ascertain effectivenss as the cohort groups had finally stabilised with the vaccination campaign winding down. (Exception being the over 75's 2nd booster campaign in April-May).

Some may argue there were much fewer cases in 2022 but the test positivity figures suggest otherwise. The argument that the new omicron variants BA.2 and BA.5 brought much fewer severe cases is probably a valid.

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Mar 10, 2023·edited Mar 10, 2023Liked by T Coddington

Thank you for this :)

In response to NakedEmperor's comment:

Jabs also heal disabilities. Vaccination rates correlate with declines in disabilities.

Everyone needs to get jabbed right now if they haven't done so already.

(Especially if you're vulnerable!)

EDIT: When vaccination rates are higher in the 0-64 cohort than in the 65+ cohort the correlation flips.

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Is there any reason you excluded the single-jabbed from the analysis?

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I asked the head of the ONS Sarah Caul why the data started in March and didn't continue until December 2022. She answered the first part of the question saying that is when they undertook the census but ignored the second part. I replied saying thanks but can you answer the second part of my question. She ignored this. I prompted her again today but again nothing. Her silence is deafening.

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If you have not seen - https://twitter.com/SarahCaul_ONS/status/1635226615587442688

A reason like this really should have been included in the methods to begin with. But it makes sense if true

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Hey TC!

You are very familiar with the US data, right?

Can you explain to me why there are 75k+ deaths missing in the 85+ cohort on national level between 2015 and 2022?

When I add up all the states, this is what I get.

I have to use 3 datasets:

1.) Weekly_Counts_of_Deaths_by_Jurisdiction_and_Age (contains only age-stratified data, no totals)

2+3) Weekly_Provisional_Counts_of_Deaths_by_State_and_Select_Causes__2020-2023 + Weekly_Counts_of_Deaths_by_State_and_Select_Causes__2014-2019 (contains "All Cause" totals).

I made this yesterday btw: https://usa.pervaers.com (yet to fix some of those age groups)

The census population estimates also seem horribly off as can be seen on that site. There are about 600k people more in NY mid-2021 compared to mid-2020.

All of this seems so fishy.

I wish there was a better place for these things to be discussed. I installed a forum on my website (forum.pervaers.com), but I just don't have the time to set it all up and promote it. Right now it seems we are all doing a lot of work individually and would benefit greatly from more cooperation.

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