Current conventional wisdom is that the vaccines don’t necessarily prevent infection all that well (or at the very least, that protection fades over time), but provide great protection against severe disease and death if infected.
I myself have examined excess mortality, all-cause mortality, and various modes of mortality at the national level, but, yes, such data are surely not consistently available at the county level.
In using data aggregated all the way up to the US, I've given lagged it by 6 or 7 weeks. That seems to do the trick at that level of aggregation.
Thanks for assembling all of this.
Are we looking at all-cause deaths or just deaths attributed to COVID?
COVID. All cause deaths in the US are months behind and I believe only at state (not county) level.
Oh, right. Good point.
I myself have examined excess mortality, all-cause mortality, and various modes of mortality at the national level, but, yes, such data are surely not consistently available at the county level.
In using data aggregated all the way up to the US, I've given lagged it by 6 or 7 weeks. That seems to do the trick at that level of aggregation.