I love your article for two reasons. One is that it is so well researched and you produced great graphs that really convey your point.
Another is that I have also been a proponent of "Omicron is not very mild" theory and wrote several articles to the same effect.
Looking at South Africa, the deaths have just crested a few days ago, whereas cases crested over a month ago on Dec 18.
This means that a 4 week delay may be very appropriate. Omicron causes delayed deaths such as heart attacks a couple of weeks post-"recovery".
Regarding the "Omicron is mild and will end Covid" theory. My own opinion is that it is NOT very mild and it will also NOT end Covid. The other Omicron variant called Ba.2 is catching up and is already dominant in Denmark, causing further insane increase in cases curve there. Cases also stopped falling in the UK and are rising again. The reason is that the UK is a couple of weeks behind Denmark on Ba.2. We are 4 weeks behind Denmark.
What will constitute a "very mild" variant though? It does look like it is mildER but not "just a cold" as many would like it to be. Is it worse than the flu? If so, by how much?
It is not exactly true. Let's say that there is a harmless XYZ virus that produces a perfectly harmless infection that lasts 7 days. Nothing bad ever happens to people infected with XYZ.
Let's say that it infects 10% of people.And let's say that we have a million person country.
So you have 100,000 people who had XYZ for 7 days, so 700,000 person-days of XYZ.
A million person country would have 365,000,000 person-days in a year. And let's say 1 out of 100 dies every year so there is 1/100/365 chance of dying per person-day.
So of the XYZ sufferers we have 700,000/100/365 deaths or 19 deaths "WITH XYZ".
Of people who avoided XYZ or who died when NOT having XYZ, we'd have (365,000,000-700,000)/100/365 deaths or 9,980 deaths "without" XYZ.
That is why I like total/excess deaths as the metric. It is counted the same between countries and it is the hardest stat for the government to manipulate.
Someday we'll get an estimate of how many of the fatalities would have survived if not for the insane prohibition of cheap, effective early treatment? We can only hope it will result in indictments.
My husband and I just recovered from covid, if recovery is defined by the dissappearance of almost all the symptoms (I have a slight residual cough) and a negative test.
We aren't vaccinated but did have some access to early treatment. We both did antigen tests to confirm infection and noted all our symptoms, which matched those typical of Omicron. A visit to our local, almost empty, ED allowed a doc to confirm that my husband's symptoms, which were worse than mine, were typical of Omicron. The doc reassured him he was doing well enough to not require medical intervention and to just manage his fever.
So I can speak from experience that the fluctuating, shifting symptoms of Omicron did follow a pattern many have reported: fevers (low grade limited to 24 hours for me--thx HCL--and 5 days going up to 103.5 for husband requiring fever reducers), fatigue, aches, some sinus issues but most of the infection focused on the throat which was wicked painful for my husban and lasted 4 days for him, milder and 1 day for me. My husband also suffered neurological disturbances which he described as "psychotic-like" attacks that were the worst part of the infection for him and unlike anything he'd ever experienced before.
I've had flu that was much worse. I've had colds that were much milder. But nothing that had pretty much laid me up for 11 days; I was able to care for us both and keep the house in order but had the also sleep ALOT. There's no way I could have gone to work, if I was employed.
To say Omicron is as mild as a cold is totally misleading. It might be, for some, but sets others up for a shock. We are both stout, never having had a flu shot and allowing our bodies the immunological training which its had plenty of experiences with in our longer lives. So we do have experiences to compare to. Like I wrote, my husband said this was the worst experience he's ever had, up there with typhoid.
Yet his O2 sats remained good, lung sound clear, color good, and while we were both fatigued, we were not debilitated to the extent we were bedridden 24/7. I do believe Omicron is milder than Delta, tending not to progress to the cytokine storm as easily, tending not to attach to lung receptors. But it was no walk in the park. And we continue to take great care to reduce the risk of long haul and of cardiac or clotting issues down the line.
Thank you, T Coddington. We have made a very good recovery and are remsining vigilant as no knows the long haul risks with Omnicron yet. Continuing with blood thinners, a supportive supplement and diet protocol, gentle movement, to avoidance of stress of all sorts.
Could be and basically aligns with Simulation Commander's comment above. A by-product of the way we've been counting COVID deaths makes it very difficult to know.
Thank you for providing such comprehensive information! I've been reading different opinions and excellent analyses from many different sources, but these graphs hit home just a bit more than anything I've seen recently.
I must be misunderstanding your graphs because I'm interpreting a red line (deaths) sitting higher than a blue line (cases) to mean there are more deaths than cases. How can that be possible? What am I getting wrong?
They are on different scales. The blue line scale shows on the left (basically thousands of cases per 100K population), while the red line scale shows on the right (10's of deaths per 100K population). If we showed on the same scale, the red line would look like it was at zero.... this way we can see them together and their relative peaks & valleys.
I love your article for two reasons. One is that it is so well researched and you produced great graphs that really convey your point.
Another is that I have also been a proponent of "Omicron is not very mild" theory and wrote several articles to the same effect.
Looking at South Africa, the deaths have just crested a few days ago, whereas cases crested over a month ago on Dec 18.
This means that a 4 week delay may be very appropriate. Omicron causes delayed deaths such as heart attacks a couple of weeks post-"recovery".
Regarding the "Omicron is mild and will end Covid" theory. My own opinion is that it is NOT very mild and it will also NOT end Covid. The other Omicron variant called Ba.2 is catching up and is already dominant in Denmark, causing further insane increase in cases curve there. Cases also stopped falling in the UK and are rising again. The reason is that the UK is a couple of weeks behind Denmark on Ba.2. We are 4 weeks behind Denmark.
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/ba2-omicron-variant-is-worth-discussing
Most likely Ba.2 is reinfecting the recently recovered vaccinated people, giving covid on top of covid on top of booster.
What will constitute a "very mild" variant though? It does look like it is mildER but not "just a cold" as many would like it to be. Is it worse than the flu? If so, by how much?
It may be 30-50% as bad as Delta. The data is still coming in.
One of the basic truths that has seemed to evade all our 'experts' is this:
If 10% of your population has a virus, roughly 10% of your deaths will have that virus -- even if it had nothing to do with why they died.
So as the positive rate ticks up, deaths will follow because of the stupid way we count covid deaths.
It is not exactly true. Let's say that there is a harmless XYZ virus that produces a perfectly harmless infection that lasts 7 days. Nothing bad ever happens to people infected with XYZ.
Let's say that it infects 10% of people.And let's say that we have a million person country.
So you have 100,000 people who had XYZ for 7 days, so 700,000 person-days of XYZ.
A million person country would have 365,000,000 person-days in a year. And let's say 1 out of 100 dies every year so there is 1/100/365 chance of dying per person-day.
So of the XYZ sufferers we have 700,000/100/365 deaths or 19 deaths "WITH XYZ".
Of people who avoided XYZ or who died when NOT having XYZ, we'd have (365,000,000-700,000)/100/365 deaths or 9,980 deaths "without" XYZ.
Now run the numbers if you test positive for up to 10 weeks, then count any death after a positive result up to 28 days after.
If 10% of your people on a specific day have a virus, you expect 10% of your deaths ON THAT DAY to have the virus. This is true of every single day.
That is why I like total/excess deaths as the metric. It is counted the same between countries and it is the hardest stat for the government to manipulate.
Someday we'll get an estimate of how many of the fatalities would have survived if not for the insane prohibition of cheap, effective early treatment? We can only hope it will result in indictments.
And hanging, drawing and quartering. Or death by a thousand cuts. Or the Colombian neck tie.
My husband and I just recovered from covid, if recovery is defined by the dissappearance of almost all the symptoms (I have a slight residual cough) and a negative test.
We aren't vaccinated but did have some access to early treatment. We both did antigen tests to confirm infection and noted all our symptoms, which matched those typical of Omicron. A visit to our local, almost empty, ED allowed a doc to confirm that my husband's symptoms, which were worse than mine, were typical of Omicron. The doc reassured him he was doing well enough to not require medical intervention and to just manage his fever.
So I can speak from experience that the fluctuating, shifting symptoms of Omicron did follow a pattern many have reported: fevers (low grade limited to 24 hours for me--thx HCL--and 5 days going up to 103.5 for husband requiring fever reducers), fatigue, aches, some sinus issues but most of the infection focused on the throat which was wicked painful for my husban and lasted 4 days for him, milder and 1 day for me. My husband also suffered neurological disturbances which he described as "psychotic-like" attacks that were the worst part of the infection for him and unlike anything he'd ever experienced before.
I've had flu that was much worse. I've had colds that were much milder. But nothing that had pretty much laid me up for 11 days; I was able to care for us both and keep the house in order but had the also sleep ALOT. There's no way I could have gone to work, if I was employed.
To say Omicron is as mild as a cold is totally misleading. It might be, for some, but sets others up for a shock. We are both stout, never having had a flu shot and allowing our bodies the immunological training which its had plenty of experiences with in our longer lives. So we do have experiences to compare to. Like I wrote, my husband said this was the worst experience he's ever had, up there with typhoid.
Yet his O2 sats remained good, lung sound clear, color good, and while we were both fatigued, we were not debilitated to the extent we were bedridden 24/7. I do believe Omicron is milder than Delta, tending not to progress to the cytokine storm as easily, tending not to attach to lung receptors. But it was no walk in the park. And we continue to take great care to reduce the risk of long haul and of cardiac or clotting issues down the line.
Hope you both are feeling much better.
Thank you, T Coddington. We have made a very good recovery and are remsining vigilant as no knows the long haul risks with Omnicron yet. Continuing with blood thinners, a supportive supplement and diet protocol, gentle movement, to avoidance of stress of all sorts.
At least 11 days for me, and 16 days for him.
Can one expect that more transmissive but less severe Omicron boosts the deaths with Covid relativ to the deaths from Covid?
Could be and basically aligns with Simulation Commander's comment above. A by-product of the way we've been counting COVID deaths makes it very difficult to know.
Thank you for providing such comprehensive information! I've been reading different opinions and excellent analyses from many different sources, but these graphs hit home just a bit more than anything I've seen recently.
Excellent, thanks.
Is the data available to break out these curves by vaccination status, and/or age?
test
I must be misunderstanding your graphs because I'm interpreting a red line (deaths) sitting higher than a blue line (cases) to mean there are more deaths than cases. How can that be possible? What am I getting wrong?
They are on different scales. The blue line scale shows on the left (basically thousands of cases per 100K population), while the red line scale shows on the right (10's of deaths per 100K population). If we showed on the same scale, the red line would look like it was at zero.... this way we can see them together and their relative peaks & valleys.
Ah! That explains it! Thank you. It's also a very reassuring clarification.
And that's what informed the 1.3% CFR!