The data on infection rates reflects positive PCR tests, which are generated by symptomatic disease as well as "close contact" testing. In the early Delta period, many of the vaccinated had either no or mild symptoms, and as such were less likely to test. Contact testing was also concentrated more on the unvaccinated, with vaccinated being considered so bulletproof that they were exempt from the testing requirements. I'm expressing this in general terms, of course, but it explains part of the negative correlation between Delta vaccination % and infection rate.
excellent point, I had forgotten about that possible dynamic. Pointing the other direction would be certain personality traits among the vaccinated that might increase their propensity to regularly test, just for the fun of it.
Wouldn’t looking at this by Covid labeled deaths (imprecise though this is it’s probably better than cases) be more instructive?
By this measure I’d expect high vax rates to be initially correlated with lower deaths simply because of the link between high vax acceptance rates and higher socioeconomic status and better preexisting health, major determinants of Covid death's.
Now, if that later reverses with boosters it tells an interesting story (of vax induced dysfunctional immune response).
I have these data & can create these plots. Because of all the confounders that I've discussed in previous posts, simply plotting vax rates vs. COVID deaths needs to be treated with extreme caution. Nevertheless, I can tell you what I am generally seeing is certainly less correlation between COVID deaths and vax rates during Omicron vs. Delta. In many regions, there is essentially zero correlation during Omicron. Deciding whether results are interesting enough for another post.
The data is garbage in Calif. From our own CDPH, California is still claiming:
From July 11, 2022 to July 17, 2022, unvaccinated people were 6.9 times more likely to get COVID-19, 11.7 times more likely to be hospitalized from covid, and 11.2 times more likely to die from covid than people who received their booster dose.
Here in Oz, the virus started raging through younger age groups mid-late last year. These groups were not yet eligible for the vax. I wonder if we had the data by age group (I think it’s available in NSW and UK) and could subtract cases for those not yet eligible for the vax whether this may change the result.
We've seen again and again at the national level that, regardless of levels of vaccination or severity of lockdowns, no nation got to escape an eventual significant COVID wave. I think we can expect this to be repeated at the county level. I don't think I can parse from these graphics whether specific counties that had less transmission during Delta had more transmission during Omicron. Regardless, I think the next wave should provide enough points of data to make a definitive call on the infection enhancement hypothesis.
The data on infection rates reflects positive PCR tests, which are generated by symptomatic disease as well as "close contact" testing. In the early Delta period, many of the vaccinated had either no or mild symptoms, and as such were less likely to test. Contact testing was also concentrated more on the unvaccinated, with vaccinated being considered so bulletproof that they were exempt from the testing requirements. I'm expressing this in general terms, of course, but it explains part of the negative correlation between Delta vaccination % and infection rate.
excellent point, I had forgotten about that possible dynamic. Pointing the other direction would be certain personality traits among the vaccinated that might increase their propensity to regularly test, just for the fun of it.
Wouldn’t looking at this by Covid labeled deaths (imprecise though this is it’s probably better than cases) be more instructive?
By this measure I’d expect high vax rates to be initially correlated with lower deaths simply because of the link between high vax acceptance rates and higher socioeconomic status and better preexisting health, major determinants of Covid death's.
Now, if that later reverses with boosters it tells an interesting story (of vax induced dysfunctional immune response).
I have these data & can create these plots. Because of all the confounders that I've discussed in previous posts, simply plotting vax rates vs. COVID deaths needs to be treated with extreme caution. Nevertheless, I can tell you what I am generally seeing is certainly less correlation between COVID deaths and vax rates during Omicron vs. Delta. In many regions, there is essentially zero correlation during Omicron. Deciding whether results are interesting enough for another post.
The data is garbage in Calif. From our own CDPH, California is still claiming:
From July 11, 2022 to July 17, 2022, unvaccinated people were 6.9 times more likely to get COVID-19, 11.7 times more likely to be hospitalized from covid, and 11.2 times more likely to die from covid than people who received their booster dose.
https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/
This is medical fascism, the California government is willing to kill than admit they are wrong.
Here in Oz, the virus started raging through younger age groups mid-late last year. These groups were not yet eligible for the vax. I wonder if we had the data by age group (I think it’s available in NSW and UK) and could subtract cases for those not yet eligible for the vax whether this may change the result.
We've seen again and again at the national level that, regardless of levels of vaccination or severity of lockdowns, no nation got to escape an eventual significant COVID wave. I think we can expect this to be repeated at the county level. I don't think I can parse from these graphics whether specific counties that had less transmission during Delta had more transmission during Omicron. Regardless, I think the next wave should provide enough points of data to make a definitive call on the infection enhancement hypothesis.