In the Western countries they said that "cases, hospitalizations and deaths are more among the vaccinated people because the number of the vaccinated is much larger than the number of unvaccinated".
But there are at least 2 countries in the European Union, Romania and Bulgaria, where the vaccinated are still outnumbered by the unvaccinated. These 2 countries can be taken as a control group.
Omicron has just arrived in my country, Romania, and I bet that in few days we'll be able to say loud and powerful: vaccinated people, ergo the vaccines, are spreading the disease. We are waiting for some official data now, I hope the authorities will have enough courage to publish them. But they have already acknowledge that 65% from Omicron cases are among fully vaccinated (while only 40% of the population is vaccinated).
While I have no doubt that the conclusion is correct, I think it's also the true that more densely populated areas would have both more per capita vaccinations and more per capita virus cases without there being any causal link. That said, once we have more time passed and more data collected, I believe the positive association between vaxxing and virus will hold up, without regard to population density.
Thank you for doing this. With no background in statistics at all, I am so grateful to have your work to learn from. Above all, it is such a relief to see someone bring their expertise to dig under the narrative to look for the facts. So I now I'm being greedy here by asking basic questions that will further my poor understanding of statistics, and am just trying my luck in the hope other lay people might also benefit from your answers, should you have the time to answer them.
Unfortunately, I am still unable to understand certain critical points, such as, "R-squared is a measure of how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the variation in the independent variable." Am I correct in understanding, in my plain language, that how much the vax % of an area IMPACTS the case rate of that area?
What does "R" represent? Why is it "Squared"? Has it anything to do with the "R"egression line?
Is the regression line an average of all the case counts and an average of vax rates in a point of time for all data representing listed counties?
Are you able to force the dashboard to show an arbitrary 2020 date range case rate by the same now-1mo vax rate?
As Maria Romana said I suspect the conclusion is correct but it would be nice to rule out population density or health care access biases. One thing I did try is capping population, using the Southeast view. Even down to 100k and the association is still there. Pretty compelling.
In the Western countries they said that "cases, hospitalizations and deaths are more among the vaccinated people because the number of the vaccinated is much larger than the number of unvaccinated".
But there are at least 2 countries in the European Union, Romania and Bulgaria, where the vaccinated are still outnumbered by the unvaccinated. These 2 countries can be taken as a control group.
Omicron has just arrived in my country, Romania, and I bet that in few days we'll be able to say loud and powerful: vaccinated people, ergo the vaccines, are spreading the disease. We are waiting for some official data now, I hope the authorities will have enough courage to publish them. But they have already acknowledge that 65% from Omicron cases are among fully vaccinated (while only 40% of the population is vaccinated).
The Omicron Lag and what that means for the UK
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-omicron-lag
While I have no doubt that the conclusion is correct, I think it's also the true that more densely populated areas would have both more per capita vaccinations and more per capita virus cases without there being any causal link. That said, once we have more time passed and more data collected, I believe the positive association between vaxxing and virus will hold up, without regard to population density.
Thank you for doing this. With no background in statistics at all, I am so grateful to have your work to learn from. Above all, it is such a relief to see someone bring their expertise to dig under the narrative to look for the facts. So I now I'm being greedy here by asking basic questions that will further my poor understanding of statistics, and am just trying my luck in the hope other lay people might also benefit from your answers, should you have the time to answer them.
Unfortunately, I am still unable to understand certain critical points, such as, "R-squared is a measure of how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the variation in the independent variable." Am I correct in understanding, in my plain language, that how much the vax % of an area IMPACTS the case rate of that area?
What does "R" represent? Why is it "Squared"? Has it anything to do with the "R"egression line?
Is the regression line an average of all the case counts and an average of vax rates in a point of time for all data representing listed counties?
Are you able to force the dashboard to show an arbitrary 2020 date range case rate by the same now-1mo vax rate?
As Maria Romana said I suspect the conclusion is correct but it would be nice to rule out population density or health care access biases. One thing I did try is capping population, using the Southeast view. Even down to 100k and the association is still there. Pretty compelling.