I don’t trust COVID death statistics.
COVID lethality per virus dropped by 10x in MA, pre-vaccine. Compared to that, hypothetical vaccine benefit is just noise. https://github.com/s1rh3nry/covid_calc#readme
You can't infer case rates from RNA flow, because RNA flows is dependent on immune status and SARS-CoV-2 variant.
This won't really shed much light either, but still can't hurt to look at other countries' data:
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_sewage_per_case.png
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_cases.png
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_sewage.png
Do you think this would look different if you looked only at the older population that was most affected by COVID?
Not really:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/regr_over_time_65%2B_0-64_mortality_compared_to_4yr_earlier.png
These are just deaths per 100k compared to 4 years earlier. Pretty much the same picture when comparing to 3 years earlier.
1 regression per week.
Thank you.
Even if you don't like COVID deaths as a variable, I recommend looking into non-COVID deaths.
These auto-regressions are also very informative:
https://years.pervaers.com/
Displayed is average weekly excess mortality for the 85+ group, but I'm not 100% sure, might be 65+.
What's remarkable is that excess mortality in 2021 predicts excess mortality in 2022 (Pearson 0.88 across states).
COVID lethality per virus dropped by 10x in MA, pre-vaccine. Compared to that, hypothetical vaccine benefit is just noise. https://github.com/s1rh3nry/covid_calc#readme
You can't infer case rates from RNA flow, because RNA flows is dependent on immune status and SARS-CoV-2 variant.
This won't really shed much light either, but still can't hurt to look at other countries' data:
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_sewage_per_case.png
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_cases.png
https://substack.pervaers.com/misc/Dutch_sewage.png
Do you think this would look different if you looked only at the older population that was most affected by COVID?
Not really:
https://substack.pervaers.com/USA_Misc/regr_over_time_65%2B_0-64_mortality_compared_to_4yr_earlier.png
These are just deaths per 100k compared to 4 years earlier. Pretty much the same picture when comparing to 3 years earlier.
1 regression per week.
Thank you.
Even if you don't like COVID deaths as a variable, I recommend looking into non-COVID deaths.
These auto-regressions are also very informative:
https://years.pervaers.com/
Displayed is average weekly excess mortality for the 85+ group, but I'm not 100% sure, might be 65+.
What's remarkable is that excess mortality in 2021 predicts excess mortality in 2022 (Pearson 0.88 across states).