Some of the work I’m most proud of on this stack is showing how survivorship bias, due to women getting vaccinated at different times in their pregnancy, implies we should not take the raw numbers on stillbirths contained in the UKHSA reports at face value.
I was reading another study (can’t remember the exact one) from the US (I think) that seemed to use this sort of time censoring.
I plotted out their methodology, enrollment and typical gestation period on a time line and it was obvious they’d show a benefit just by the study design.
Oh yes. This is a very important aspect. They show us what they want us to see but as an abstract from the whole picture. I always felt there is something awry with these figures, you have just put the last piece in for me. Makes so much sense, Thanks!
Also, if older, wealthier women are more likely to be jabbed, and under normal circumstances less likely to smoke, drink, eat poorly & have a low birthweight baby....but now they’re jabbed, are having fewer babies overall. While the less likely to be jabbed, but more likely to have low birthweight babies usually, poorer & younger women continue to have babies with a less precipitous decline in birth rate...then that’s going to distort all your numbers too.
I was reading another study (can’t remember the exact one) from the US (I think) that seemed to use this sort of time censoring.
I plotted out their methodology, enrollment and typical gestation period on a time line and it was obvious they’d show a benefit just by the study design.
Oh yes. This is a very important aspect. They show us what they want us to see but as an abstract from the whole picture. I always felt there is something awry with these figures, you have just put the last piece in for me. Makes so much sense, Thanks!
Also, if older, wealthier women are more likely to be jabbed, and under normal circumstances less likely to smoke, drink, eat poorly & have a low birthweight baby....but now they’re jabbed, are having fewer babies overall. While the less likely to be jabbed, but more likely to have low birthweight babies usually, poorer & younger women continue to have babies with a less precipitous decline in birth rate...then that’s going to distort all your numbers too.
They are not matched cohorts.
so we take 100 women, vaccinate them all, and 9 of them come out unvaccinated?
really?
no, they gave birth before they were able to get vaccinated. so, the births were by unvaccinated women. that's the point.
*scheduled* is what i wrote.