Out here in the People's Republic of California, the data is completely opposite of the UK, Denmark and German data, data that shows negative vaxx efficacy.
I think Calif Dept of Public Health is playing with the numbers to game the charts, but I won't bore you with my amateur analysis details. Link below for the curious.
Right. I don't know that I trust any data in the US on this. I don't know what is going on, but it's not plausible it would be dramatically different here than the other countries. Also, there is simply not enough unvaccinated folks left to cause a crisis.
It seems I read someone that just debunked the San Jose numbers and here is a great link to Steve kirsch reporting from El Camino Hospital in Mountain View.
Hmm El Camino Hospital in Mountain View just announced ““Currently, 57% of our hospitalized COVID patients are fully vaccinated.” “
“Only one patient is on a ventilator which is consistent with the evidence that the Omicron variant is more contagious but less virulent.”
By the way, in Denmark, their version of the CDC literally admits that efficacy is negative. They publish an efficacy number, per brand (Pfizer/Moderna) and per age group. Fascinating stuff - https://noline.substack.com/p/denmark-ssi-report-week-2022-01
Please dismiss this entire article. Author said "with a jump that size I almost wonder if there was an error in the data they are publishing." So we all agree he is mistaken, now move along. I hate it when someone dismisses their own work and negates all of the other assertions
"We all agree he is mistaken"? No. I wrote accurately about the data that was published. Given that these reports cover 4 weeks at a time, the last 2 reports would share 2 out of the 4 weeks being reported (they skipped a week over holidays). When 1/2 of the data is shared between consecutive reports, it's very difficult mathematically for the aggregate numbers to jump as much as they did. I wrote the line above because if it turns out that the UK folks got something wrong in their reporting, I don't want to be labeled as misleading, alarmist, anti-science, yadda yadda yadda.
How is it mechanistically possible that the jab has negative efficacy for transmission yet somehow appears to do something with respect to hospitalization and death?
This is something that is out of my depth (by a lot). I'm only good (I hope) at analyzing the data... I have not taken a biology class since high school. El gato has had posts on Original Antigenic Sin, but I'm not confident I understand well enough to confidently suggest that is the explanation.
It is criminal that no one is spreading this information, but, Mucosal immunity (nasal cavities, throat, gut ,etc) is separate from systemic (lungs, blood, etc.) An intramuscular vaccine impacts the systemic system and may reduce severe effects of virus once in lungs. But, the intramuscular vaccine may have no effect on Mucosal immunity which is where the virus multiplies and then is spread. They have toyed with Mucosal vaccines but they create all kinds of neuro issues. There is currently a pill in the works to be swallowed that is supposed to stimulate the Mucosal system in the gut. Please read:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full
Out here in the People's Republic of California, the data is completely opposite of the UK, Denmark and German data, data that shows negative vaxx efficacy.
I think Calif Dept of Public Health is playing with the numbers to game the charts, but I won't bore you with my amateur analysis details. Link below for the curious.
https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/#postvax-status
Thanks again for the great recap.
Right. I don't know that I trust any data in the US on this. I don't know what is going on, but it's not plausible it would be dramatically different here than the other countries. Also, there is simply not enough unvaccinated folks left to cause a crisis.
Same thing in New York
It seems I read someone that just debunked the San Jose numbers and here is a great link to Steve kirsch reporting from El Camino Hospital in Mountain View.
Hmm El Camino Hospital in Mountain View just announced ““Currently, 57% of our hospitalized COVID patients are fully vaccinated.” “
“Only one patient is on a ventilator which is consistent with the evidence that the Omicron variant is more contagious but less virulent.”
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/el-camino-hospital-cmo-admits-that
I don't know how to make you a gatopal but you deserve it!
FWIW, here's my attempt to cover the same thing: https://noline.substack.com/p/ukhsa-week-2022-01
By the way, in Denmark, their version of the CDC literally admits that efficacy is negative. They publish an efficacy number, per brand (Pfizer/Moderna) and per age group. Fascinating stuff - https://noline.substack.com/p/denmark-ssi-report-week-2022-01
I don't know but you definitely deserve the Gatopal distinction!
I'll put a good word (and a cat treat) for you over at gato's hangout.
In Ontario the numbers very much agree with this - https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data
I find your approach of displaying the rates per age-bracket over a longer timeframe very useful for observing the trends.
Could you update this particular graphic with the publicly available data for the successive weeks in Januar-March 2022?
Will do a quick update post this morning.
Please dismiss this entire article. Author said "with a jump that size I almost wonder if there was an error in the data they are publishing." So we all agree he is mistaken, now move along. I hate it when someone dismisses their own work and negates all of the other assertions
"We all agree he is mistaken"? No. I wrote accurately about the data that was published. Given that these reports cover 4 weeks at a time, the last 2 reports would share 2 out of the 4 weeks being reported (they skipped a week over holidays). When 1/2 of the data is shared between consecutive reports, it's very difficult mathematically for the aggregate numbers to jump as much as they did. I wrote the line above because if it turns out that the UK folks got something wrong in their reporting, I don't want to be labeled as misleading, alarmist, anti-science, yadda yadda yadda.
In the Ontario data, one other interesting correlation with the rapid rise of cases in the fully vaccinated is the rapid adoption of the "booster".
https://web.elastic.org/~fche/blog4/posts/big_fat_zero/?updated
How is it mechanistically possible that the jab has negative efficacy for transmission yet somehow appears to do something with respect to hospitalization and death?
This is something that is out of my depth (by a lot). I'm only good (I hope) at analyzing the data... I have not taken a biology class since high school. El gato has had posts on Original Antigenic Sin, but I'm not confident I understand well enough to confidently suggest that is the explanation.
It is criminal that no one is spreading this information, but, Mucosal immunity (nasal cavities, throat, gut ,etc) is separate from systemic (lungs, blood, etc.) An intramuscular vaccine impacts the systemic system and may reduce severe effects of virus once in lungs. But, the intramuscular vaccine may have no effect on Mucosal immunity which is where the virus multiplies and then is spread. They have toyed with Mucosal vaccines but they create all kinds of neuro issues. There is currently a pill in the works to be swallowed that is supposed to stimulate the Mucosal system in the gut. Please read:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full