Thanks for creating this. One possible explanation for the results your showing is that you have cohort depletion in the most vulnerable in the countries that had high deaths pre-vax and you'd expect to see lower deaths over time. The other countries did not have this and when the vaccines accelerated spread the vulnerable population became affected. This is a complex system and this is just one explanation but as I look around the world this seems to make some sense to me. I'm also open to other interpretation as well.
Excellent work. It certainly shows another dimension of the data. Comment on Australia, NZ. Remember that we locked out virus (including seasonal influenza) from our countries in the early period. There will always be a population of vulnerable people. Those that didn't die in one period will unfortunately die shortly later.
I agree with your assessment. Prior infection with earlier variants is probably the reason for lower deaths rates in countries that were hit hard initially (US, UK, Europe).
I'm concerned, though, the countries that are experiencing higher death rates (relative to themselves earlier in the pandemic) will not have the same benefit as the countries that were hit hard early on. The majority of their populations (infection naive before the jabs) have immune fixation and will recall vaxx antibodies to the extinct Wuhan variant with every new infection.
I've seen some already making claims on the millions of lives vaccines saved. If they don't settle for simply taking the efficacy as advertised and doing the math, and look to confirm using mortality statistics, I suspect they'll cherry pick countries where vaccines can take credit for cohort depletion. It be nice to have a rejoinder queued up and waiting.
This is elegant, though maybe not a clean answer to the Vax-Induced Worry Window Surge Theory™. A Worry Window-monger would take the UK data, censor 2020, and time-lag vaccinations to match weekly infections/death to injection itself, and produce a graph showing that the injections caused the winter 20/21 wave, viola. Likewise for the US during the summer booster roll-out. To me that’s just cherry-picking and blaming helmets for causing soldiers to get shot, but it’s tricky to deal with the argument since the stats for the implied connecting piece (partially vaxxed infections) are scant. Anyway I just wanted to point out how this dashboard might be bumping into a hot topic.
I did an analysis (for myself) early on looking at obesity rates by US county and Covid deaths and I don't remember the exact numbers but the R squared of a simple trend line for this data was much higher than would be expected for such a complex system. Huge factor that explains a lot.
Thanks for creating this. One possible explanation for the results your showing is that you have cohort depletion in the most vulnerable in the countries that had high deaths pre-vax and you'd expect to see lower deaths over time. The other countries did not have this and when the vaccines accelerated spread the vulnerable population became affected. This is a complex system and this is just one explanation but as I look around the world this seems to make some sense to me. I'm also open to other interpretation as well.
Excellent work. It certainly shows another dimension of the data. Comment on Australia, NZ. Remember that we locked out virus (including seasonal influenza) from our countries in the early period. There will always be a population of vulnerable people. Those that didn't die in one period will unfortunately die shortly later.
I agree with your assessment. Prior infection with earlier variants is probably the reason for lower deaths rates in countries that were hit hard initially (US, UK, Europe).
I'm concerned, though, the countries that are experiencing higher death rates (relative to themselves earlier in the pandemic) will not have the same benefit as the countries that were hit hard early on. The majority of their populations (infection naive before the jabs) have immune fixation and will recall vaxx antibodies to the extinct Wuhan variant with every new infection.
I've seen some already making claims on the millions of lives vaccines saved. If they don't settle for simply taking the efficacy as advertised and doing the math, and look to confirm using mortality statistics, I suspect they'll cherry pick countries where vaccines can take credit for cohort depletion. It be nice to have a rejoinder queued up and waiting.
This is elegant, though maybe not a clean answer to the Vax-Induced Worry Window Surge Theory™. A Worry Window-monger would take the UK data, censor 2020, and time-lag vaccinations to match weekly infections/death to injection itself, and produce a graph showing that the injections caused the winter 20/21 wave, viola. Likewise for the US during the summer booster roll-out. To me that’s just cherry-picking and blaming helmets for causing soldiers to get shot, but it’s tricky to deal with the argument since the stats for the implied connecting piece (partially vaxxed infections) are scant. Anyway I just wanted to point out how this dashboard might be bumping into a hot topic.
I did an analysis (for myself) early on looking at obesity rates by US county and Covid deaths and I don't remember the exact numbers but the R squared of a simple trend line for this data was much higher than would be expected for such a complex system. Huge factor that explains a lot.
Take a look here: https://inumero.substack.com/p/best-predictor-of-covid-deaths-in?r=tv61s&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web .