In the never-ending quest to politicize everything and grow division among Americans, NPR has published this Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates.
Had this conversation with a friend. Another point might be to look at variance attributable to urban (Democrat) vs rural (Republican) and health care access and quality.
But the question is how long have they sat on this analysis before releasing it? Did they have the model 3 months ago and waited for the seasons to change? My money says yes. Unfortunately I don't have that much money because the people capable of such shenanigans have probably already taken it from me.
Demographics probably also play a part here, as older voters tend to lean Republican. We need also to compare age categories in each county, and compare % of Dem/Rep votes to number of deaths in those categories.
Very true. I don't think I have county level age demographics, so I can't back up that with data. The NPR piece did say "even when controlling for age" but I'd like to check them on that. Also, rural counties have higher mortality in general: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db417.htm
What that proves is those who manipulate data for Joe are unaware of what causes covid deaths. Spuriouscorrelations.com has a lot of fun stats showing random irrelevance, like the divorce rate in Maine is highly correlated with margarine consumption. Until they admit the causes of covid deaths (HINT: It ain't covid), all stats are meaningless.
Another possible explanation, or further confounder...
My first thought was that the densely populated counties all had the worst COVID in 2020, simply because dense population causes rapid spread. Those counties are also the ones that vote blue, simply because big cities are Liberal, and small town/rural areas are Conservative. Is it possible that the counties with the most COVID in 2020 had less in 2021 and vice versa?
Yep! You nailed this one through the board and got another subscriber. And we were shouting that this reversal would happen as soon as the idiots started making their claims. And once again we're right.
Very true. I don't think I have county level age demographics, so I can't back up that with data. The NPR piece did say "even when controlling for age" but I'd like to check them on that. Also, rural counties have higher mortality in general: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db417.htm
Had this conversation with a friend. Another point might be to look at variance attributable to urban (Democrat) vs rural (Republican) and health care access and quality.
Yep. Linked this above: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db417.htm & related https://inumero.substack.com/p/dog-bites-man?r=tv61s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
That's another huge point. The virus already swept through the big cities before June 2021. Just look at NYC's daily hospitalizations:
14k peak in spring 2020
4k peak in winter 2020
The more rural areas saw exactly the opposite.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospitalization-summary (Click on each region separately)
Ah, this was my thought, too...
But the question is how long have they sat on this analysis before releasing it? Did they have the model 3 months ago and waited for the seasons to change? My money says yes. Unfortunately I don't have that much money because the people capable of such shenanigans have probably already taken it from me.
Demographics probably also play a part here, as older voters tend to lean Republican. We need also to compare age categories in each county, and compare % of Dem/Rep votes to number of deaths in those categories.
Very true. I don't think I have county level age demographics, so I can't back up that with data. The NPR piece did say "even when controlling for age" but I'd like to check them on that. Also, rural counties have higher mortality in general: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db417.htm
Overall mortality as discussed here would play a role: https://inumero.substack.com/p/dog-bites-man?r=tv61s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
What that proves is those who manipulate data for Joe are unaware of what causes covid deaths. Spuriouscorrelations.com has a lot of fun stats showing random irrelevance, like the divorce rate in Maine is highly correlated with margarine consumption. Until they admit the causes of covid deaths (HINT: It ain't covid), all stats are meaningless.
This is such a valuable breakdown of the data!
Good breakdown.
THANK YOU!
Another possible explanation, or further confounder...
My first thought was that the densely populated counties all had the worst COVID in 2020, simply because dense population causes rapid spread. Those counties are also the ones that vote blue, simply because big cities are Liberal, and small town/rural areas are Conservative. Is it possible that the counties with the most COVID in 2020 had less in 2021 and vice versa?
The tables are turning as predicted.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-demography-is-destiny/comments
Yep! You nailed this one through the board and got another subscriber. And we were shouting that this reversal would happen as soon as the idiots started making their claims. And once again we're right.
Very true. I don't think I have county level age demographics, so I can't back up that with data. The NPR piece did say "even when controlling for age" but I'd like to check them on that. Also, rural counties have higher mortality in general: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db417.htm